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C.J. Adrien's avatar

Thanks, Terri! I have a theory on how this is all going to go, based on my experience in sales and marketing. To be successful in business, you have to have a defined market. Looking at LLMs and their defined markets (ie who they sell to), it’s becoming apparent that tech companies are selling their service to the people those services are starting to replace in the workforce. As AI replaces more workers, more people will cancel their subscriptions. As companies go bankrupt because AI replaces them (like BPOs, marketing firms, law firms, etc), the very people who would have bought subscriptions to the LLMs will no longer be able to, or want to. The few big corporations who will benefit at first from savings using AI will also go belly up because their target markets will also be out of work. And Because LLMs are owned by private corporations, their durability depends on the market. If the market collapses and Big Tech goes belly up, and they absolutely can, then AI may become a casualty of an economic crisis. So like you, I don’t see a future where AI takes over the world and kills all the people. It will file for chapter 11 long before that because it will have put all its own customers out of work. AI may be what frees us from our tech overlords—by accident.

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Gregory Amato's avatar

"People who do hiring will no longer care what your GPA or SAT score was or what prestigious university you went to. None of it will carry any weight because it will be assumed you did not do the work but rather let AI do it for you, and so your fancy degrees won’t be worth the paper they’re printed on."

Rather than this leading to a collapse, I see it leading to some really unfortunate roads that sustain the system. But not in a good way:

Hiring managers can often ignore the degree and do a modicum of in-person testing during interviews to assess real reading comprehension and writing ability. Or specific skills. If they do that, it further lengthens job interview processes. It used to be one interview. Maybe introductory jobs will require a series of three interviews: Two controlled-condition tests, and maybe a third where you finally talk to human beings.

Which would suck and be pointless, but it's not like we're avoiding pointless things that suck with regard to technology right now.

The bigger issue: People don't get hired because of degrees, and so people aren't as likely to be hired with higher "interview scores" no matter what hiring process is adopted. People get hired because of networking, which is largely built on the base of the school you went to. Hiring managers get word of mouth, make a decision, and then begin the application process headed toward a conclusion that's already been made.

And if that's the case for managers, and we really don't care that much about people learning in college as much as who they make friends with, then why not just go whole-hog? Let's just drop the curriculums students want to cheat at anyway and make college a series of organized teambuilding exercises.

You can only take Binge Drinking once, but you can take Sophisticated Drinking multiple times since there are lots of snooty drinks to learn about. Polite Media Discourse for Polite Company can also be taken multiple times, especially after a new season of White Lotus. Maybe branch out with some physical activities like Paintball to be well-rounded. The really tough course would be Using AI to Write, which would consist of training on AI, not writing. Obviously. And would usually be taken the same semester as Binge Drinking.

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